Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations-Second Quarter of 2020

Labour market

Overall, consumer expectations regarding labour market conditions have deteriorated significantly since the first quarter, reflecting the impact of COVID‑19 and related containment measures on both wage growth (Chart 3) and labour market turnover (Chart 4).

First, the probability of losing a job increased to its highest point in the survey. Second, respondents reported that the probability of finding a job if they lost their main job declined from 50 to 40 percent—the lowest level since the 2015 oil price shock. Third, the likelihood of leaving a job voluntarily dropped sharply from its survey high in the previous quarter. This suggests respondents had a worsening view of future labour market conditions and less confidence in their ability to find another position during the pandemic. Weaker expected turnover is likely to lower the quality of job-worker matching as well as productivity and wage growth going forward. Fourth, consumers’ expectations for their wage growth over the next year declined modestly, to 1.9 percent. This is well below their inflation expectations.